導讀:經濟將是中國新一屆核心引導人里對的最大年夜挑釁之一。止將離職的國度主席胡錦濤已為他的接班人設定了新目标,也即是正正在2020年前讓中國的人均收入翻一倍。
請聽BBC經濟記者 Andrew Walker 發還的報導:
Judging by China's recent performance, Hu Jintao's target might be seen as easily achievable. It implieseconomic growth of about 9.6% a year, which is rather less than the average over the last three decades. But that growth was based on some elements that can't lastindefinitely.
In common with many emerging countries, China's economic success has involved a rapid increase in the number of industrial workers, many of them moving from rural to urban areas. There is a limit to that process, and China might be close to it already. Very high levels of investment have also been important, but they are not seen as sustainable.
There is also the central role that exports have played in China's growth. The uncertain outlook in many rich country markets casts a shadowover that too. Most economists think the transition that's needed is to an economy driven much more by spending by China's own consumers. As incomes have risen, so has consumer spending, but its share in economic activity remains unusually low.
The World Bank has set out reforms that might help change that, by reducing incentives to focus on exports, and industrial investment. The Bank also suggests a wider reform effort to make China more of a market economy. If that analysis is right, the prize could be many more years of strong economic performance and rising Chinese living standards.
Quiz 聽力攷試
Does the report say China’s economy will continue to grow at a fast pace indefinitely?
Can you spot another word in the report that means ‘to keep going or to maintain'?
What do economists think of the role Chinese consumers should play?
What suggestions has the World Bank proposed about China’s econonmy?
Glossary 辭匯表
· judging by根据(甚麼)往斷定
· implies意味著
· indefinitely無窮期的
· rapid快速的
· outlook遠景
· casts a shadow投下阴影
· set out設定
· incentives嘉獎辦法
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